M. Arias and F. J. Díez. Cost-effectiveness analysis with sequential decisions. Technical Report CISIAD-11-01, UNED, Madrid, 2011.
26 pages. PDF (859 KB), zip version (827 KB), BibTeX entry.
In this paper we present a new method for performing cost-efectiveness analysis of problems that involve multiple decisions and probabilistic outcomes. This problem has been ignored by most of the literature on medical decision making, and the few solutions proposed so far are either wrong or unfeasible except for very small problems. The method proposed in this paper consists of building a decision tree with several decision nodes and evaluating it with a modified roll-back algorithm that operates with partitions of intervals.
See the technical report for an explanation of these examples.